Fannie Mae: Economy Will ‘Reaccelerate’ in 2nd Half of 2013

Fiscal drags such as the sequester may have weakened economic momentum, but the economy should “reaccelerate” in the second half of this year as financial and housing conditions improve, according to Fannie Mae’s Economic and Strategic Research Group.

In its most recent economic outlook, the group revealed expectations for the economy to continue the modest recovery and grow 2.2 percent this year, up from 1.7 percent in 2012 and 2 percent in 2011.

“Employment numbers are getting better, albeit it at a relatively slow pace, and the April employment picture should help boost consumer sentiment toward the economy overall. Spending grew in the first quarter at a surprisingly strong pace, and although this rate is unlikely to hold up, consumers continue to show signs of resilience in the face of fiscal concerns,” said Doug Duncan, chief economist for Fannie Mae.

Duncan though warned of “potential” headwinds, such as the “long-term effects of sequestration, spending constraints, the sovereign debt crisis, and the impending debt ceiling.”

Amid the expected improvements, the group anticipates the housing market’s recovery will go on as well, reinforced by current levels of home affordability.

According to the GSE’s analysis, housing affordability should steadily decline from its 2012 peak, but will still hover above normal levels through 2017. By that time, the group expects the 30-year fixed rate mortgage to average 5 percent.

While affordability provides support to the housing market’s recovery, it’s not the main driver of homebuying activity, according to the GSE.

“Going forward, the trends in lending standards, regulations regarding lending and securitization of mortgages, and housing finance reform will be key to a transition to normal for the housing market,” the group stated.

Home prices should also continue their upward trajectory, aided by limited inventory, a smaller share of distressed sales, and increased efforts to prevent foreclosures.

Looking ahead, the group forecasts single-family starts will increase 24 percent this year, while multifamily starts will rise by about 35 percent during the same time period.

Total home sales—new and existing—are expected to increase by nearly 8 percent in 2013, while home prices should average a 3.9 percent gain.
The 30-year fixed rate mortgage is projected to average 4 percent in 2014.

If you’re looking for real estate opportunities, please contact me direct at Alexkarypis@gmail.com 

Source: DSNEWS

Year-over year US home prices up sharply in November

U.S.  home prices in November extended their steady recovery from the housing bust,  rising 7.4 percent compared with a year ago. It was the biggest year-over-year  increase in 6½ years.

CoreLogic,  a private data provider, said Tuesday that prices also rose 0.3 percent in  November from October. The month-to-month figures are not seasonally adjusted.  CoreLogic compiles its indexes by tracking sales of the same homes over time,  using data on sales in all 50 states.

The  gains in home prices have been widespread across most of the country. And  CoreLogic forecasts that prices will increase 6 percent this year.

Prices  in November were higher than in November 2011 in all but six states. And only 13  of 100 large cities that CoreLogic studies reported year-over-year price  declines. That was down from 20 cities in October.

The  sharpest increases were in Arizona, Nevada and Idaho. North Dakota and  California rounded out the top five.

Steady  price increases are helping fuel the housing recovery. They’re encouraging some  people to sell homes and enticing would-be buyers to purchase homes before they  get more expensive. Rising prices also reduce the number of homeowners who owe  more on their mortgages than their homes are worth.

“All  signals currently point to a progressive stabilization of the housing market and  the positive trend in home price appreciation to continue into 2013,” said Anand  Nallathambi, CEO of CoreLogic.

Despite  the gains, home prices nationwide are still nearly 27 percent lower than in  April 2006, when prices peaked during the housing bubble.

Some  of the biggest gains have been in states that were hurt the worst. Prices in one  of them, Arizona, have jumped nearly 21 percent in the past year, the most of  any state. But prices in that state are still nearly 40 percent below  their peak.

And  prices in Nevada have risen 14.2 percent in the past year but remain 53 percent  below peak levels.

The  states where prices continue to fall include Delaware, where they are 4.9  percent below a year ago, and Illinois, down 2.2 percent. Connecticut, New  Jersey, Rhode Island and Pennsylvania are also reporting declines.

Prices  rose 24 percent in Phoenix in the past 12 months, the most of any large metro  area. Riverside-San Bernardino, Calif. was next with a 9.7 percent rise. It was  followed by Los Angeles, where prices rose 8.4 percent.

Source: Sfgate.com

Hot Deal of the Week: 14835 Valley Vista Blvd. Sherman Oaks ,CA 91403

Asking Price: $1,029,000

Bedrooms: 5

Bathrooms: 5

Approx. Sq. ft: 4,608

Approx. Lot Size: 8,288

Year Built: 1975

Description:

DWP water main break created an opportunity for a Builder/Investor to creat a
South of the blvd entertainer’s dream home. Property suffered water damage
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House has been stripped down to studs and floor boards from DWP water main 
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Please contact me at (323)422-7122.

 

Listing Courtesy of: John Mihranian; Prudential California Realty

Shadow Inventory: It’s Not as Scary as It Looks

The housing market is improving because there are more buyers chasing fewer homes. Skeptics of a housing bottom, however, often point to a scary set of numbers: the “shadow inventory” of potential foreclosures—the millions of mortgages that are either in foreclosure or in seriously default.

It’s true that home prices are unlikely to see brisk gains once they do hit bottom because it will take years to absorb this glut. But will this phantom inventory derail the incipient housing bottom?  Maybe not, say a number of housing analysts.

There are several reasons why the shadow inventory isn’t as scary as it sounds: It’s concentrated in a handful of markets—it isn’t inherently a national phenomenon. It is being offset by improved demand, particularly from investors. And the housing vacancy rate is low, a product of very little new home construction over the past few years that could counterbalance continued high inventories of foreclosed homes.

We’ll address each of those in subsequent posts. But first, let’s examine the actual size of the shadow inventory. While the shadow is very large, one often-overlooked fact is that the shadow isn’t nearly as large as it was two years ago.

There are a wide range of estimates of shadow inventory. A common measure are loans that are either in the foreclosure process or that are three months or more delinquent. These are mortgages that are among the most likely to ultimately become bank-owned properties.

Barclays Capital estimates that at the end of May there were around 1.8 million mortgages in the foreclosure process and another 1.45 million where borrowers have missed at least three payments. That puts the total number of properties that could be repossessed and resold by banks at around 3.25 million mortgages.

‘The concept of a huge shadow inventory is preposterous,’ says one economist.

If those homes hit the market all at once, housing would be in deep trouble. Last year, for example, there were 4.4 million sales of previously owned homes. The figure is still higher than any time before June 2009.

But it is down from a peak of 4.25 million in February 2010. And unless mortgage delinquencies begin to accelerate sharply, the shadow inventory won’t be growing. Barclays estimates that at the current rate, this figure could fall to around 2.4 million loans.

“The concept of a huge shadow inventory is preposterous,” says Christopher Thornberg, a housing economist with Beacon Economics in Los Angeles. “The number of mortgages in distress is way down from one year ago. It’s clear there are fewer distressed properties out there.”

Housing analyst Ivy Zelman has a slightly larger estimate of shadow inventory—around 6.3 million homes at the end of last year—that includes more newly delinquent mortgages and potential re-defaults. She says that in a normal market, there’s a comparable shadow inventory of 2.9 million homes. So the key figure—the excess level above the historical trend—is around 3.4 million homes.

Ms. Zelman published an in-depth research note earlier with the title: “Shining a bright light on the shadow: Why what’s lurking doesn’t concern us.” In it, she explains how it’s more important to focus on the pace at which foreclosures are being liquidated, and not the absolute number.

“Just like the Wizard of Oz, shadow inventory is not very intimidating once you pull back the curtain,” the report said. That isn’t to dismiss the magnitude of the problem and headwind it will continue to pose for any housing recovery, she wrote. “The bathtub is almost full, but the water has stopped rising, and we are most concerned with how fast it drains.”

Certainly, there are many other  risks to housing. There are at least 11 million homeowners that are underwater, owing more than their homes are worth. There are even more than that who don’t have enough equity to make a 10% down payment on their next home, plus pay a real-estate broker’s sales commission, in order to trade up to a bigger home or downsize to a smaller one.  And it’s still very difficult to get a mortgage.

But the shadow inventory is often the big trump card used to quiet any housing-happy talk. Tomorrow, we’ll offer a deeper look at how demand factors into this equation, and how the shadow is being disposed.

Source: LA TIMES

Rate on 30-year mortgage falls to record low!

The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage fell this week to a record low for the seventh time in eight weeks.

 

Mortgage buyer Freddie Mac said Thursday that the average on the 30-year loan dropped to 3.66% from 3.71% last week. It’s the lowest rate since long-term mortgages began in the 1950s.

The average rate on the 15-year mortgage, a popular refinancing option, declined to 2.95%. That’s down from 2.98% last week and just above the record 2.94% of two weeks ago.

The rate on the 30-year loan has been below 4 % since December.

Low rates could provide some help to the economy if more people refinance. When people refinance at lower rates, they pay less on their loans and have more money to spend.

 

Mortgage rates have been dropping because they tend to track the yield on the 10-year Treasury note. Uncertainty about how Europe will resolve its debt crisis has led investors to buy more Treasury securities, which are considered safe investments. As demand for Treasurys increase, the yield falls.

And the yield will likely fall even lower now that the Federal Reserve has said it will continue selling short-term Treasury securities and using the proceeds to buy longer-term Treasurys. That goal of the program is to drive long-term interest rates lower to encourage more borrowing and spending.

 

To calculate average rates, Freddie Mac surveys lenders across the country Monday through Wednesday each week.

The average does not include extra fees, known as points, which most borrowers must pay to get the lowest rates. One point equals 1% of the loan amount.

The average fee for 30-year loans was 0.7 point, unchanged from last week. The fee for 15-year loans was 0.6 point, down from 0.7.

The average rate on one-year adjustable rate mortgages fell to 2.74% from 2.78% last week. The fee for one-year adjustable rate loans was unchanged at 0.5 point.

L.A Real Estate Market is on Fire!

Luxury Homes Spur Bidding Wars in L.A. as Market Rebounds…

Great Article on Bloomberg about the bidding wars happening while the market rebounds!

A week after Christine Lynch listed her house in the Brentwood neighborhood of Los Angeles for $3.625 million, she had seven offers. Within 10 days, a deal was reached for the five-bedroom, six-bathroom home — and for $225,000 more than she asked.

“My first reaction was, ‘Wow, I guess we’re really doing this,’” Lynch, 55, said in an interview. The all-cash transaction was completed on April 23. “I was really surprised by this level of interest and how quickly it sold,” she said.

This Brentwood home was listed for $1.55 million and had more than 100 people look at it during three open houses. It received 11 offers and is set to close escrow on May 23 for $1,705,000. Source: Coldwell Banker Previews International via Bloomberg

This Brentood house originally listed for $3,625,000; after seven offers a deal was reached within 10 days for the sale of the five-bedroom, six-bathroom home for $3.85 million. Source: Coldwell Banker Previews International via Bloomberg

This home located in Santa Monica two blocks from the beach, was sold in mid-April for $2.85 million after receiving multiple bids within the first week of having been listed. The agency that sold it to a husband-wife couple with four kids was Beverly Hills-based RodeoRealty Inc. Source: Rodeo Realty Inc. via Bloomberg

Bidding wars are breaking out for luxury homes in such wealthy Los Angeles enclaves as Brentwood, Beverly Hills and Bel Air as an increasing number of buyers bet on rising home prices and investors return to the market. Even properties in need of extensive renovation are being fought over by shoppers who expect to resell them for more after a remodel or rebuild.

“The percentage of people who think prices are only going to go up is the greatest I have ever seen in my career,” said Syd Leibovitch, president of Rodeo Realty Inc. in Beverly Hills.

Sales of Beverly Hills homes priced at $2 million and higher climbed 11 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier to 39, according to DataQuick, a San Diego-based provider of property information. In Brentwood, whose residents include actress and singer Julie Andrews, they increased 56 percent to 25, and in Malibu they gained 64 percent to 23.

Throughout the U.S., residential-property sales of $1 million and higher rose 7.2 percent in March, the most recent month for which figures are available, from a year earlier, according to the Chicago-based National Association of Realtors, whose price categories stop at that amount.

Across U.S.

Demand has been rising for high-end homes in the northeastern U.S., including Boston and New York; on the California coast; and in parts of the southern U.S. amid a recovery in financial markets, according to Paul Bishop, vice president of research at the Realtors group.

In Brentwood and Beverly Hills, homes usually start between $2.8 million and $3.2 million for those on smaller lots in low- lying areas, and can go as high as $20 million for larger plots, according to John Gould, manager of Rodeo Realty’s Beverly Hills office. Properties in hillier areas, which usually are larger and have views, tend to range from $5 million to $75 million.

In the Los Angeles area, multiple offers — as many as a dozen per home — have reduced listing times for the highest- priced houses as bidders worried about losing out act faster than they have in the past two years, according to Stephen Shapiro, cofounder of Westside Estate Agency in Beverly Hills.

Acting Quickly

While luxury properties used to linger on the market for weeks and months as recently as 2011, offers now come in on the day of the first showing, a phenomenon that was common during the 2007 buying frenzy, Shapiro said.

“In recent history, buyers would look at homes and return six months later to find the same home was still on the market,” he said. “Now if buyers hesitate, the house is often sold by the time they come back. And each time one sells, the next one comes on at a higher price.”

Sales remain less than the record reached from 2005 to 2007, said Leibovitch of Rodeo Realty. In Beverly Hills, where celebrities including Sharon Stone have homes, first-quarter transactions for properties priced $2 million and higher were 40 percent below the 65 homes sold in the third quarter of 2005, and in Brentwood the 25 purchased were 49 percent below 2007’s second quarter, according to DataQuick.

Too Few Sellers

Deals are being held back in part by a shortage of willing sellers. Nationwide, about 2.37 million existing homes were listed for sale in March, the fewest for the month since 2005, the year U.S. home sales reached a record 7.08 million, the National Association of Realtors reported April 19.

“We could have twice as many sales if we had more inventory,” Leibovitch said.

A total of 19,284 houses and condominiums sold in Los Angeles and five other Southern California counties in April, DataQuick reported yesterday. That was down 3.4 percent from March, and 21 percent below the average for April since 1988.

Jack Massopust listed his 92-year-old father’s Brentwood home, which boasts views of the city, the Pacific Ocean and Catalina Island, on April 3 for $1.55 million. Within about a week, more than 100 shoppers had come to three open houses, and the 3,200-square-foot (300-square-meter) house, which Massopust’s father bought new in 1960, had received 11 offers. Eight were at or higher than the asking price.

‘Very Surprised’

The property, listed through Mary Lu Tuthill of Coldwell Banker Previews International in Brentwood, is in escrow, expected to close May 23, for about $1.705 million. The purchasers agreed to a “buy as is” condition, Massopust said.

“I have always appreciated the location and the view,” said Massopust, 64, a retired transportation engineer for the city of Los Angeles. “That’s in my opinion what sold the house for that price. But I was still very surprised.”

Sales volume for homes priced $5 million and higher at all of Coldwell’s West Los Angeles offices was up 35 percent this year through May 8 from a year earlier, according to Joyce Rey, the Beverly Hills-based head of the estates division at Coldwell Banker Previews International.

“There’s an added degree of confidence in the future and that prices are likely going to go up,” Rey said. “There is a definite change in consumer attitude.”

Tuthill, who also brokered the sale of Lynch’s house, said an increasing number of homes sell within a week of being listed. One 6,000-square-foot property on Tower Road in Beverly Hills, in escrow and scheduled to close by the end of the month, came on the market at $7.295 million and within a week received five offers, the highest of which was for more than $2 million greater than the asking price, Tuthill said.

Speculators Back

The increase in demand for high-end properties is being driven in part by investors looking to make a profit, a buyer pool that’s been almost nonexistent the past couple years, according to Rey. She said investors have grown to about 20 percent of the shoppers she represents since the beginning of the year.

Throughout Southern California, the portion of investor purchases was close to a record last month, and the share of buyers paying cash was double the historical average, according to DataQuick.

“The speculative buyer is back,” Rey said. “This is the first time since 2007 that I have investor clients again.”

That’s buoying an increase in bids for homes that need major work, she said.

Bidding War

One house on a 25,000-square-foot lot in Brentwood hadn’t been on the market in more than 50 years and was considered a “borderline tear-down,” according to Tuthill. The home, with original 1930s kitchen and bathrooms, was listed at $5.495 million at the beginning of March and received five offers, the highest of which was $5.6 million. After the seller countered at $5.695 million, two bidders upped their offers to $5.7 million and one jumped to $5.75 million, the eventual selling price.

“We were always joking that we were holding it together with bubble gum and paper clips,” Tuthill said. “The initial reaction was that this property was priced too high for recent comparables. But what brokers underestimated is the pent-up demand.”

A home on Bel Air Road in Bel Air came on the market in mid-March at $10.25 million and the final purchase agreement was signed for $1 million more. Escrow is scheduled to close next week.

Major Renovation

The mid-century house, once owned by the late television host Art Linkletter, hadn’t been on the market in 40 years. The buyer is considering a major renovation or tearing it down, Tuthill said.

“Those types of properties are more in demand than ever,” said Leibovitch of Rodeo Realty. “With interest rates as low as they are, investors can really get a good deal.”

Competition is so fierce that one couple looking to buy in Santa Monica had their daughters, ages 8 and 10, write a letter and draw a picture of the home to try to persuade the elderly seller to choose them over other bidders.

The neurologist and his wife, who asked not to be named because they don’t want his patients to know details of the purchase, agreed in mid-April to pay $155,000 more than the $2.695 million asking price for the four-bedroom, three-bathroom house, located two blocks from the beach.

Lynch and her husband, who’d owned their Brentwood home for 18 years, bought a smaller, three-bedroom house in the West Los Angeles neighborhood of Rancho Park, because they now spend about 40 percent of the year on the Hawaiian island of Kauai. They’re relieved they decided to act now, she said.

“We didn’t really have to sell,” Lynch said. “It was more of a lifestyle choice, a question of where do we want to be 10 years from now. But with this type of response, it seemed like it was meant to be.”

Source : Bloomberg 5.17.12 Nadja Brandt

The Importance of Staging to Get Top Dollar

The answer to the real estate question “to stage or not to stage” a house for sale is a resounding: do it!

Higher prices is one reason. On average, a staged house commands a 17 percent higher final sale than a non-staged house. Faster sales is another. According to a Real Estate Staging Association report from 2010, homes that were not staged stayed on the market an average of 181 days (before owners gave in and had their homes professionally staged) as compared to 35 days for staged homes.

The why is pretty straightforward. Most homes are less than perfect, and staging can direct attention away from flaws in a room or throughout the house. In fact, even the best looking house can use a little help. For example, staging helps buyers focus on particular elements in the house—directing the eye to value such as a fireplace, custom woodwork, etc.

Although often confused, decorating and staging are very different. Decorating is personal; staging is business. In decorating, the goal is to make a house reflect the owners’ personality while staging takes personality out of the house but keeps it warm and inviting. Buyers need to be able to imagine themselves living in your house. Think about walking into a fine hotel: it’s not personal but you want to go in and stay a while. That’s staging.

Staging does cost money — anywhere from $300 to $5,000. But according to the 2011 HomeGain Home Improvement Survey, home staging produced an average of 299 percent return on investment, with sellers spending an average of $550 and seeing a $2,194 sale price increase.

Home staging is one of many low cost home improvements that can make a substantial difference in getting top dollar for your home.

 

If you’re interested in listing your property and need a valuation or staging suggestions, please contact us any time.